It's coming back (Not that it's a big surprise.)

Sign advertising Tim Hortons "Roll Up The Rim To Win" promotion, Granville SkyTrain station, Vancouver, BC (February 7, 2015)

Tim Horton's "Roll Up The Rim To Win" promotion is a favourite among Canadians. I just wonder if it has run its course.

Almost everyone in the country is aware of the promotion. Even coffee drinkers that otherwise never go to Tim Hortons participate in it. I just wonder if it has much on an effect on long-term customer loyalty.

By some estimates Tim Hortons has 60-70% of the out-of-home poured coffee market in Canada. When this promotion is on the lines at the Tim Hortons locations are HUGE. People who otherwise never go to Tim Hortons happily wait in line for a chance to win. (And then once the contest is over go back to patronizing their regular coffee shop.)

But is the contest leading to increased market share over the long term, or have the customers just come to expect it? Has Tim Hortons created a rather expensive monster? If Tim Hortons stops doing this promotion will another coffee retailer do something similar? I'm sure MacDonalds would love to get the sort of sustained traffic that Tim Hortons gets.